Anticorruption advocates often argue that the fight against corruption is not just about strengthening systems for detecting and punishing corrupt behavior, but about implementing broader systemic reforms to policies and institutions that create the conditions in which systemic corruption is more likely to take hold. That advice is sound as far as it goes—but the challenge then becomes identifying those policies and institutions that have this “corruptogenic” character. One prominent hypothesis in this vein is that corruption thrives in environments where there is a lack of “economic freedom”—where the government plays an outsize role in the economy, imposes lots of burdensome regulations on private enterprise, does not provide effective protection for private property and contract rights, and generally restricts economic activity. This idea (which is perhaps especially attractive to those who favor a limited government role in the economy for other reasons) is certainly plausible. But is it true?
Proponents of the idea that a lack of economic freedom leads to more extensive corruption can point to a substantial body of cross-country research that purports to find a strong negative correlation between economic freedom and corruption. Most of this research measures (perceived) corruption using one of the familiar international indexes, most commonly Transparency Internationals’ Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). The research in this vein also measures “economic freedom” using indexes produced by NGOs—the most widely-used of which is the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom (IEF), which aggregates a number of variables thought to be related to economic freedom, grouped into four different categories (rule of law, limited government, regulatory efficiency, and open markets). Numerous studies have found a strong and statistically significant correlation between the IEF and the CPI, and treated this as strong evidence that a lack of economic freedom is at the very least associated with, and most likely causes, more widespread corruption (see here, here, here, here, here, and here).
Unfortunately, these results tell us precisely nothing. Put aside the standard admonition that we can’t infer causation from correlation. Put aside the concern that “economic freedom” may not be a coherent concept, and that the Heritage IEF aggregates a large number of disparate factors. And put aside worries about whether these studies control for potential additional variables that might influence both corruption and economic freedom. The fatal flaw in drawing any inferences at all from the correlation between the IEF and the CPI is in fact much more straightforward: Continue reading →